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Yemen Separatists Unveil Constitution for Southern State

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Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council announced a constitution for an independent southern state on Friday, as Saudi airstrikes hit STC positions in Hadramout and the UAE confirmed a full troop withdrawal, deepening fractures inside the Saudi-led coalition.

The Southern Transitional Council’s announcement of a provisional constitution marks the clearest institutional step yet toward southern secession in Yemen. Issued on Friday, the 30-article document frames itself as the legal foundation of a new entity, the “State of South Arabia,” reviving the borders of the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen that existed from 1967 to 1990. STC leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi said the charter would apply for two years, after which a referendum would be held on “exercising the right to self-determination for the people of the South.” He warned that if rival factions rejected dialogue or resorted to force, “all options remain open.” The declaration comes after STC-linked forces seized two southern provinces last month and took over the presidential palace in Aden, forcing members of the internationally recognised government to relocate to Riyadh.

“This Is Not a Declaration of War”

The political move unfolded alongside fresh military pressure. On Friday, Saudi warplanes struck camps and military positions held by STC forces in Hadramout province as Saudi-backed units attempted to retake the facilities. Ahmed bin Breik, a senior STC official and former Hadramout governor, said Saudi aircraft intervened after separatist forces refused to withdraw. STC spokesperson Mohamed al-Nakib said the strikes caused fatalities, without specifying numbers. Salem al-Khanbashi, the Hadramout governor appointed the same day by the internationally recognised government to command coalition forces in the province, sought to limit escalation. “This is not a declaration of war and is not seeking an escalation,” he said on Yemen TV, describing the operation as a pre-emptive effort to remove weapons and restore order.

Coalition Strains and Gulf Rivalry

The confrontation highlights the widening rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, once aligned as the twin pillars of the Saudi-led coalition formed in 2015 to fight Iranian-backed Houthi forces controlling northern Yemen. While Riyadh backs the internationally recognised government, Abu Dhabi has supported the STC as a dominant security actor in the south. The UAE’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday it was handling the crisis with “restraint, coordination, and a deliberate commitment to de-escalation.” Early Saturday, the UAE Defence Ministry announced that its withdrawal of troops from Yemen was complete, citing the conclusion of remaining counterterrorism missions. No figures were given, though multiple Emirati military cargo flights had been observed in recent days. The withdrawal follows weeks of Saudi strikes on STC positions and an earlier Saudi-backed call for UAE forces to leave within 24 hours.

Airspace, Authority, and Escalation Control

The political and military clash has spilled into civilian infrastructure. Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed al-Jaber, said the STC leader had blocked a Saudi delegation’s aircraft from landing in Aden, despite prior coordination. Yemen’s STC-aligned Transport Ministry countered that Riyadh imposed new requirements forcing flights to undergo inspections in Jeddah, effectively disrupting traffic. Aden International Airport, the main gateway for areas outside Houthi control, saw flights halted, including routes to the UAE. As Saudi-backed National Shield Forces advanced on STC-held camps in Hadramout and Mahra, the separatists refused to hand over weapons or facilities. The constitution announcement, military strikes, and airspace dispute together underscore how Yemen’s internal fractures are now directly testing the cohesion and command structure of the broader Gulf-backed coalition.

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Middle East

Iran Puts Uranium Enrichment on the Negotiating Table

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Iran is effectively living under war conditions and is prepared for all scenarios, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, while signalling that Tehran could reduce uranium enrichment from 60% to 20% if it receives concessions in return.

Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Iran’s nuclear programme remains entirely peaceful and rejected claims that uranium enriched to 60% is intended for military use.

Speaking to Lebanon-based Al-Mayadeen television, Shamkhani said Iran could lower its uranium enrichment level from 60% to 20%, a move long sought by Western powers, but stressed that such a step would require a “price”.

Enrichment at 60% can be reduced to 20%, but it must come at a price. We do not know exactly how much enriched uranium remains, because some of it is buried under rubble and has not been recovered due to the risks involved.

Ali Shamkhani, Senior Advisor of Iran’s Supreme Leader

He said Iran has no intention of transferring its enriched uranium abroad, adding that this option is now “completely off the table”.

“We Are Living in the Shadow of War”

Shamkhani described Iran’s current situation as one shaped by constant pressure and the threat of conflict, saying the country is already living under wartime conditions.

He said Iran’s enemies have imposed unjust conditions, unjust threats and an unjust war environment, while preparing for confrontation with all their strength. According to Shamkhani, Tehran is therefore ready for any possible scenario.

Europe Sidelined, US Seen as Sole Counterpart

Shamkhani said Europe has been effectively sidelined from the nuclear process since former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018.

He said European countries were unable to play any meaningful role either after the withdrawal or during negotiations held ahead of last June’s conflict. According to Shamkhani, Trump did not allow European parties to intervene in the process.

As a result, Shamkhani said the nuclear issue can only be discussed directly with the United States and strictly within the framework of nuclear negotiations, adding that reaching an agreement with Washington remains possible.

Uncertainty Over Uranium Stockpiles

Shamkhani also said Iran does not know exactly how much enriched uranium it currently holds. He said part of the stockpile is buried under rubble and has not been recovered due to the risks involved.

No steps have been taken to extract those materials so far, he added, citing safety concerns.

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Iran–US Talks to Be Held in Istanbul on February 6

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Iran and the United States are set to hold high-level talks in Istanbul on February 6 as efforts intensify to revive stalled nuclear negotiations. The meeting will bring together senior officials alongside key regional actors amid rising geopolitical tensions.

According to diplomats speaking to Reuters, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will meet in Istanbul on Friday, February 6, in a renewed attempt to revive nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

A regional diplomat said the talks will include bilateral, trilateral and multilateral formats, reflecting a broader diplomatic push to prevent further escalation.

Regional Actors Join the Process

The same diplomat noted that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and several other countries will participate in the Istanbul talks, underscoring regional efforts to support diplomacy.

Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing a government official, reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian has instructed officials to initiate negotiations with the United States over Iran’s nuclear program.

Mixed Signals From Washington

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he remained optimistic about reaching an agreement but warned that “bad things could happen to Iran” if talks fail.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said a negotiation framework had already been established, rejecting media speculation about an imminent military conflict.

Contrary to the war scenarios being promoted in the media, we are making progress on the structural arrangements for negotiations.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani

An Iranian official told Reuters that diplomacy is ongoing, but stressed that Washington must reduce its military presence in the region for talks to formally begin, adding: “The ball is now in Trump’s court.”

Russia Renews Uranium Proposal

Russia has also stepped in to support de-escalation efforts. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow has reiterated its offer to take Iran’s enriched uranium, convert it into fuel for civilian nuclear reactors and store it as part of a broader confidence-building measure.

However, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that officials from the Supreme National Security Council remain opposed to sending enriched uranium abroad. Deputy Secretary Ali Bagheri Kani said the proposal would not be discussed in potential talks with Washington.

Escalating Tensions and Diplomatic Traffic

Diplomatic activity has intensified amid fears that Iran–US tensions could spill into a regional conflict. Trump sparked speculation in January by saying “help is on the way” following protests in Iran, comments that were widely interpreted as signaling possible military action.

The US later deployed the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East under CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. On January 28, Trump again urged Tehran to return to nuclear talks, warning that any future military action would be “far worse” than US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were expected to conduct naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz on February 1, but the exercise was subsequently canceled.

Türkiye Offers Facilitation Role

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned that a US attack on Iran would trigger a regional war.

Meanwhile, diplomatic engagement between Ankara and Tehran has intensified. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Araghchi on January 29, emphasizing the importance of returning to the negotiating table. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan followed up with a phone call to President Pezeshkian on January 30.

According to Türkiye’s Communications Directorate, Erdoğan told his Iranian counterpart that Ankara is ready to play a facilitating role between Iran and the United States. Erdoğan later met Araghchi in person during the Iranian minister’s visit to Türkiye.

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Rafah Crossing Will Reopen On Sunday

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Israel said it will reopen Gaza’s Rafah crossing on Sunday for limited civilian movement under Israeli inspection, EU supervision, and Egyptian coordination.

Israeli authorities say the crossing, closed for nearly two years, will reopen on Sunday for limited civilian transit only, tightly controlled by Israeli security procedures.

The reopening aligns with provisions outlined in the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, though no firm timetable for broader implementation has been announced.

The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), an Israeli defense ministry body, said on Friday that “exit from and entry into the Gaza Strip via the Rafah Crossing will be permitted in coordination with Egypt, following prior security clearance of individuals by Israel, and under the supervision of the European Union mission.”

COGAT added that the mechanism would mirror arrangements used in January 2025, including an additional screening and identification process at a corridor under Israeli military control.

“Limited Manner, Full Inspection”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underscored the security-first approach on Jan 28, stating, “We agreed to open the Rafah crossing in a limited manner, and only with our inspection.”

He added that it will be for people only, in limited numbers, and “everyone who exits or enters will undergo our inspection – a full inspection.”

Israeli officials say the initial phase will allow dozens of Palestinians per day in each direction, prioritizing medical evacuees and civilians displaced during the war.

An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press that movement would begin with cases approved in advance, including wounded civilians and those requiring specialized medical care unavailable in Gaza. According to Gaza’s health ministry, roughly 20,000 sick and wounded Palestinians currently require treatment outside the enclave, where hospitals and surgical capacity were severely degraded during the conflict.

Humanitarian Pressure at the Crossing

Rafah has historically been the primary gateway between Gaza and Egypt and a critical conduit for humanitarian access. Gaza is home to approximately 2 million people, many displaced multiple times and facing shortages of food, shelter, and medicine. Thousands inside Gaza are seeking to leave, while tens of thousands who fled earlier phases of fighting are seeking to return. Under the announced plan, only Palestinians who left Gaza during the war will be permitted to re-enter, and only after Israeli security clearance coordinated with Egypt.

Hamas responded by calling for full implementation of the ceasefire terms, urging Israel to open the crossing “in both directions without restrictions.” Israeli officials, however, maintain that control of Rafah remains a security imperative, particularly following the return of the remains of the last Israeli captive earlier this week, which concluded a core component of the ceasefire’s first phase.

External Oversight, Narrow Scope

The reopening will take place under the supervision of the European Union Border Assistance Mission, with Egypt coordinating on its side of the crossing. While the arrangement restores a degree of civilian movement after nearly 24 months of closure, Israeli statements make clear that Rafah will not function as an unrestricted border. The scope is limited to people, not goods, and all transit remains subject to Israeli approval.

The record on the ground appears to be far worse. An infographic by Anadolu Agency reporting shows Israel committed 1,244 ceasefire violations in Gaza after the truce took effect on October 10, 2025, resulting in 449 Palestinian deaths and 1,246 injuries. The report cites major restrictions on aid deliveries, and a shelter crisis affecting more than 1.5 million displaced people during winter conditions, claiming that Israel’s compliance only amounted to 12% of the provisions of the ceasefire deal.

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