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Iran Now Reveals The Limitations Of US Power

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Over the past year, Iran has exposed both the reach and the limits of U.S. power: from “shock and awe” strikes that made Tehran blink, to Washington’s muted response as an existential uprising was crushed, revealing Trump’s preference for easy wins over costly confrontations.

Over the past year in Iran we have likely seen both the highs and the lows in terms of U.S. military prowess.

First came another example of the heights of U.S. military capability with the “shock and awe” U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. We saw that when charged with a very specific, well targeted mission the technological advantage of the U.S. can be felt to full and devastating effect. In a way the U.S. called Iran’s bluff – Tehran thought the U.S. would not bomb for fear of retaliation which could have included a rapid move to enrich a limited number of dirty bombs or attacks on Gulf states. None of that happened as the U.S. attacks were not yet existential to the regime – they had boundaries which included not isolating themselves within the global south and its neighbours. Tehran blinked.

But most recently with the weak U.S. response to the latest uprising in Iran we saw the limitations of U.S. power. The uprising started, Trump initially perhaps saw a chance to bask in the glory of regime change, egged the demonstrators on by saying the U.S. would not let them down. The regime, facing a really existential threat, showed no mercy, no restraints, killing thousands of demonstrators, and the U.S. did nothing very much. This likely reflected the difficulties then of the militarily responding to support a civil uprising without boots on the ground – hard to determine friend and foe in street clashes from drones thousands of feet up. But also I think the U.S. was deterred in responding by regime warnings that it saw this finally as an existential threat – which this was – and it would retaliate by hitting Gulf assets. Trump feared a spike in oil prices as a result – hitting his campaign at home to tackle the cost of living crisis. Trump also likely listened to Iran’s neighbours who were worried that another half baked, half arsed, failed Western intervention in Iran would just produce another failed state – after a very long list of Western failures in Somalia, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan et al. They worried what might come next could be worse than the Islamic Republic.

As is the regime seems to have turned the tide of the uprising and understanding that it needed to give Trump something of a win has now apparently offered to suspend executions of demonstrators. Likely this will only be temporary until the news cycle and Trump’s narrow attention span shifts.

But let’s not beat around the bush here, this was a defeat for Trump. Trump set a red line on the regime in Tehran, they crossed it and Trump did nothing. They called his bluff – TACO. And it kind of demonstrates that Trump wants easy wins – the low hanging fruit. As per the decapitation exercise in Venezuela. If you can pitch an easy win to Trump, with the use of the bells and whistles of the U.S. military, he will take it. But he is less willing to get into the detail of resolving difficult crises that require the U.S. to input real skin in the game, take meaningful risks and go the extra mile to find solutions to the real underlying problems and you can see that in his approach to Ukraine and Gaza – looking for quick ceasefires rather than lasting solutions.

The immediate consequences of Trump’s humiliation really by the regime in Iran is Trump will look elsewhere to change the news cycle. I think we have seen that in the last 24H with new focus on Greenland, peace talks in Ukraine and the second stage of Gaza peace process

On Greenland, I would be worried now about some military spectacle – little Green men appearing akin to Crimea 2014.

On Ukraine Trump seems to be back to bullying Zelensky and brown nosing Putin. Bullying the weak, pandering to the powerful. But there is no way that Zelensky can accept anything close to the Dimwit 28-point plan. So the war goes on.

And on Gaza, the first stage ceasefire secured the release of hostages and reduced, but did not stop, the casualty rate amongst Palestinians – many hundreds have died during the ceasefire still. And there seems to have been very little progress on the core issues revolving around the later stages of the initial plan. Key there still is the deployment of a peacekeeping force including credible military involvement which really means Turkiye, the Gulf states, Pakistan et al. And therein Trump still does not seem to have secured sign off from Israel. So it’s difficult to be that optimistic.

A couple of final points to end on though.

First, the irony of Trump’s meaningless “Wag the Dog” operation to take Maduro out in Venezuela was that US military assets were diverted from the Gulf which left the U.S. military less able to act on a crisis where the dog – a Rottweiler – was barking loudly. And therein we can talk about the new Donroe Doctrine but when push came to shove the Western hemisphere was the distraction to the main event for Trump which was in the Gulf – and Trump could not help himself there by being so outspoken at the outset about backstopping demonstrators and seemingly being all in for regime change. As it was proven he was not in at all, not even very much at all. And if there is to be regime change in Iran then Trump has made clear, it’s up to Iranians.

Second, surely the above suggests all this was a colossal failure of U.S. intelligence. Surely with U.S. and Israeli assets in and over Iran they should have seen the uprising coming and briefed Trump then of the consequences of moving assets out of the Gulf to focus on Venezuela. So either this was a failure of U.S. intelligence or the Trump administration failed to accurately read or act on the available intelligence that was forthcoming on Iran. The actions on Venezuela could have waited – the regime change opportunities in Iran could not. But also Iran – unlike Venezuela – has the right oil – it’s the oil price plus or minus 30% story. So Trump missed two tricks here because of his distraction in Venezuela. And on Venezuela it was Trump’s ego and impatience that got the better of him – it’s was Trump vs Maduro. It became personal.

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Middle East

Rafah Crossing Will Reopen On Sunday

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Israel said it will reopen Gaza’s Rafah crossing on Sunday for limited civilian movement under Israeli inspection, EU supervision, and Egyptian coordination.

Israeli authorities say the crossing, closed for nearly two years, will reopen on Sunday for limited civilian transit only, tightly controlled by Israeli security procedures.

The reopening aligns with provisions outlined in the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, though no firm timetable for broader implementation has been announced.

The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), an Israeli defense ministry body, said on Friday that “exit from and entry into the Gaza Strip via the Rafah Crossing will be permitted in coordination with Egypt, following prior security clearance of individuals by Israel, and under the supervision of the European Union mission.”

COGAT added that the mechanism would mirror arrangements used in January 2025, including an additional screening and identification process at a corridor under Israeli military control.

“Limited Manner, Full Inspection”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underscored the security-first approach on Jan 28, stating, “We agreed to open the Rafah crossing in a limited manner, and only with our inspection.”

He added that it will be for people only, in limited numbers, and “everyone who exits or enters will undergo our inspection – a full inspection.”

Israeli officials say the initial phase will allow dozens of Palestinians per day in each direction, prioritizing medical evacuees and civilians displaced during the war.

An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press that movement would begin with cases approved in advance, including wounded civilians and those requiring specialized medical care unavailable in Gaza. According to Gaza’s health ministry, roughly 20,000 sick and wounded Palestinians currently require treatment outside the enclave, where hospitals and surgical capacity were severely degraded during the conflict.

Humanitarian Pressure at the Crossing

Rafah has historically been the primary gateway between Gaza and Egypt and a critical conduit for humanitarian access. Gaza is home to approximately 2 million people, many displaced multiple times and facing shortages of food, shelter, and medicine. Thousands inside Gaza are seeking to leave, while tens of thousands who fled earlier phases of fighting are seeking to return. Under the announced plan, only Palestinians who left Gaza during the war will be permitted to re-enter, and only after Israeli security clearance coordinated with Egypt.

Hamas responded by calling for full implementation of the ceasefire terms, urging Israel to open the crossing “in both directions without restrictions.” Israeli officials, however, maintain that control of Rafah remains a security imperative, particularly following the return of the remains of the last Israeli captive earlier this week, which concluded a core component of the ceasefire’s first phase.

External Oversight, Narrow Scope

The reopening will take place under the supervision of the European Union Border Assistance Mission, with Egypt coordinating on its side of the crossing. While the arrangement restores a degree of civilian movement after nearly 24 months of closure, Israeli statements make clear that Rafah will not function as an unrestricted border. The scope is limited to people, not goods, and all transit remains subject to Israeli approval.

The record on the ground appears to be far worse. An infographic by Anadolu Agency reporting shows Israel committed 1,244 ceasefire violations in Gaza after the truce took effect on October 10, 2025, resulting in 449 Palestinian deaths and 1,246 injuries. The report cites major restrictions on aid deliveries, and a shelter crisis affecting more than 1.5 million displaced people during winter conditions, claiming that Israel’s compliance only amounted to 12% of the provisions of the ceasefire deal.

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Middle East

“U.S. May Launch Strike on Iran on Sunday”

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U.S. officials have reportedly warned a regional ally that a potential military strike against Iran could begin as early as Sunday, according to claims circulating in the American press amid rising regional tensions.

According to Drop Site News, American officials have alerted a regional ally that a potential strike against Iran could begin on Sunday. The alleged operation is said to extend beyond nuclear and missile infrastructure, with claims that Iran’s leadership itself could also be among the targets.

Trump’s Remarks Fuel Speculation

The reports follow recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated that he had given Iran a “deadline for a deal.” His remarks have been widely interpreted in Washington as a signal that the military option remains under active consideration if diplomacy fails.

Regime Change Claims

Drop Site News reported that Trump could approve a strike on Iran as early as this weekend. The outlet claimed that the proposed operation would aim not only to degrade Iran’s military capabilities but could also seek to trigger regime change.

CENTCOM warning in the Strait of Hormuz

Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) issued a warning to Iran ahead of planned military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM cautioned Iranian forces against approaching U.S. troops and stressed that maneuvers posing a threat to American personnel would not be tolerated.

Iran signals possible retaliation

In response, Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned that any attack on Iran could prompt strikes deep inside Israel, raising fears of a broader regional escalation.

U.S. naval deployment highlighted

Trump also underscored the scale of U.S. military deployments, saying the American naval force moving toward Iran was larger than the fleet sent toward Venezuela. He reiterated his warning that there would be consequences if no agreement is reached with Tehran.

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Middle East

A Biography of Iraq’s Polarizer: Nouri al-Maliki

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Nouri al-Maliki, Iraq’s prime minister from 2006 to 2014, rose from exile after 1979 to dominate post-Saddam politics.

His tenure was marked by sectarian rule, corruption, Iran ties, and the 2014 fall of Mosul, shaping Iraq’s instability and foreign relations.

Nouri al-Maliki, born in 1950, joined the Islamic Da’wa Party in the 1970s and fled Iraq in 1979 after persecution by Saddam Hussein’s regime. 

He lived in Syria and Iran through the 1980s and 1990s, operating under the alias “Jawad” and building links with Iranian and Hezbollah figures. 

After the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, he returned to Baghdad, served on the de-Baathification commission, helped draft the 2005 constitution, and entered parliament. 

In May 2006, after months of deadlock, he was selected as prime minister, succeeding Ibrahim al-Jaafari. 

That year, he approved Saddam Hussein’s execution, carried out during a religious holiday, a decision that drew criticism for its sectarian symbolism.

Monopoly of Power

Al-Maliki governed for two terms from 2006 to 2014, becoming the longest-serving Iraqi leader since 2003. 

After losing the 2010 election to Ayad Allawi’s Iraqiya bloc, he retained office through coalition maneuvering and court rulings.

He concentrated authority by holding key security ministries and appointing loyalists to command posts. 

In 2011, he obtained a court ruling placing independent agencies under cabinet control, which critics called a “coup against the constitution.” 

His government pursued Sunni rivals, including Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, who fled Iraq after terrorism charges, and Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq, who accused Maliki of being “worse than Saddam Hussein.” 

Sunni protests in 2012–2013 were suppressed, culminating in the April 2013 Hawija raid, where dozens of demonstrators were killed. Human Rights Watch later documented a secret detention facility in Baghdad run by forces reporting directly to his office.

Corruption allegations defined his tenure. 

Iraq’s Commission of Integrity estimated that about $500 billion in public funds vanished between 2006 and 2014. 

Investigations uncovered more than 50,000 “ghost soldiers,” and officials said 57,000 Interior Ministry salaries were paid to nonexistent employees.

A $4.2 billion Russian arms deal collapsed in 2012 over bribery claims. Transparency International ranked Iraq among the world’s most corrupt states during this period.

Regional Alignments and Collapse

Al-Maliki’s foreign policy sharpened sectarian and regional divides. 

He cultivated close relations with Tehran, aligning with Iran on Syria and tolerating Iranian military flights to Damascus. 

Gulf states accused him of marginalizing Sunnis; Saudi Arabia said his “exclusionary policies” helped create the conditions for ISIS. 

Relations with Türkiye deteriorated after 2012, when he accused Ankara of interference and labeled it a “hostile state.” 

Although he signed a 2007 memorandum pledging cooperation against the PKK, Turkish officials complained Baghdad failed to implement concrete measures.

The decisive blow to his premiership came in June 2014, when ISIS captured Mosul. 

Parliamentary investigators later named al-Maliki among those responsible for the collapse, citing politicized command structures and ignored warnings. 

About 30,000 Iraqi troops abandoned the city with minimal resistance. Under pressure from Iraq’s religious authorities, Washington, and Tehran, al-Maliki resigned in August 2014.

He later served as vice president and remained leader of the Da’wa Party.

U.S. assessments hardened over time. 

Donald Trump warned in January 2026 that Washington would cut support if al-Maliki returned to office, saying, “We can’t let that happen again,” and blaming his “insane policies” for Iraq’s chaos. 

In a 2014 interview, al-Maliki accused Saudi Arabia and Qatar of backing terrorism, stating, “These two countries are primarily responsible for the sectarian and terrorist crisis in Iraq.”

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