Middle East

Iran Now Reveals The Limitations Of US Power

Published

3 weeks ago

15 January 2026

dailyreporter

Over the past year, Iran has exposed both the reach and the limits of U.S. power: from “shock and awe” strikes that made Tehran blink, to Washington’s muted response as an existential uprising was crushed, revealing Trump’s preference for easy wins over costly confrontations.

Over the past year in Iran we have likely seen both the highs and the lows in terms of U.S. military prowess.

First came another example of the heights of U.S. military capability with the “shock and awe” U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. We saw that when charged with a very specific, well targeted mission the technological advantage of the U.S. can be felt to full and devastating effect. In a way the U.S. called Iran’s bluff – Tehran thought the U.S. would not bomb for fear of retaliation which could have included a rapid move to enrich a limited number of dirty bombs or attacks on Gulf states. None of that happened as the U.S. attacks were not yet existential to the regime – they had boundaries which included not isolating themselves within the global south and its neighbours. Tehran blinked.

But most recently with the weak U.S. response to the latest uprising in Iran we saw the limitations of U.S. power. The uprising started, Trump initially perhaps saw a chance to bask in the glory of regime change, egged the demonstrators on by saying the U.S. would not let them down. The regime, facing a really existential threat, showed no mercy, no restraints, killing thousands of demonstrators, and the U.S. did nothing very much. This likely reflected the difficulties then of the militarily responding to support a civil uprising without boots on the ground – hard to determine friend and foe in street clashes from drones thousands of feet up. But also I think the U.S. was deterred in responding by regime warnings that it saw this finally as an existential threat – which this was – and it would retaliate by hitting Gulf assets. Trump feared a spike in oil prices as a result – hitting his campaign at home to tackle the cost of living crisis. Trump also likely listened to Iran’s neighbours who were worried that another half baked, half arsed, failed Western intervention in Iran would just produce another failed state – after a very long list of Western failures in Somalia, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan et al. They worried what might come next could be worse than the Islamic Republic.

As is the regime seems to have turned the tide of the uprising and understanding that it needed to give Trump something of a win has now apparently offered to suspend executions of demonstrators. Likely this will only be temporary until the news cycle and Trump’s narrow attention span shifts.

But let’s not beat around the bush here, this was a defeat for Trump. Trump set a red line on the regime in Tehran, they crossed it and Trump did nothing. They called his bluff – TACO. And it kind of demonstrates that Trump wants easy wins – the low hanging fruit. As per the decapitation exercise in Venezuela. If you can pitch an easy win to Trump, with the use of the bells and whistles of the U.S. military, he will take it. But he is less willing to get into the detail of resolving difficult crises that require the U.S. to input real skin in the game, take meaningful risks and go the extra mile to find solutions to the real underlying problems and you can see that in his approach to Ukraine and Gaza – looking for quick ceasefires rather than lasting solutions.

The immediate consequences of Trump’s humiliation really by the regime in Iran is Trump will look elsewhere to change the news cycle. I think we have seen that in the last 24H with new focus on Greenland, peace talks in Ukraine and the second stage of Gaza peace process

On Greenland, I would be worried now about some military spectacle – little Green men appearing akin to Crimea 2014.

On Ukraine Trump seems to be back to bullying Zelensky and brown nosing Putin. Bullying the weak, pandering to the powerful. But there is no way that Zelensky can accept anything close to the Dimwit 28-point plan. So the war goes on.

And on Gaza, the first stage ceasefire secured the release of hostages and reduced, but did not stop, the casualty rate amongst Palestinians – many hundreds have died during the ceasefire still. And there seems to have been very little progress on the core issues revolving around the later stages of the initial plan. Key there still is the deployment of a peacekeeping force including credible military involvement which really means Turkiye, the Gulf states, Pakistan et al. And therein Trump still does not seem to have secured sign off from Israel. So it’s difficult to be that optimistic.

A couple of final points to end on though.

First, the irony of Trump’s meaningless “Wag the Dog” operation to take Maduro out in Venezuela was that US military assets were diverted from the Gulf which left the U.S. military less able to act on a crisis where the dog – a Rottweiler – was barking loudly. And therein we can talk about the new Donroe Doctrine but when push came to shove the Western hemisphere was the distraction to the main event for Trump which was in the Gulf – and Trump could not help himself there by being so outspoken at the outset about backstopping demonstrators and seemingly being all in for regime change. As it was proven he was not in at all, not even very much at all. And if there is to be regime change in Iran then Trump has made clear, it’s up to Iranians.

Second, surely the above suggests all this was a colossal failure of U.S. intelligence. Surely with U.S. and Israeli assets in and over Iran they should have seen the uprising coming and briefed Trump then of the consequences of moving assets out of the Gulf to focus on Venezuela. So either this was a failure of U.S. intelligence or the Trump administration failed to accurately read or act on the available intelligence that was forthcoming on Iran. The actions on Venezuela could have waited – the regime change opportunities in Iran could not. But also Iran – unlike Venezuela – has the right oil – it’s the oil price plus or minus 30% story. So Trump missed two tricks here because of his distraction in Venezuela. And on Venezuela it was Trump’s ego and impatience that got the better of him – it’s was Trump vs Maduro. It became personal.

Middle East

Iran Puts Uranium Enrichment on the Negotiating Table

Published

2 hours ago

3 February 2026

dailyreporter

Iran is effectively living under war conditions and is prepared for all scenarios, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, while signalling that Tehran could reduce uranium enrichment from 60% to 20% if it receives concessions in return.

Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Iran’s nuclear programme remains entirely peaceful and rejected claims that uranium enriched to 60% is intended for military use.

Speaking to Lebanon-based Al-Mayadeen television, Shamkhani said Iran could lower its uranium enrichment level from 60% to 20%, a move long sought by Western powers, but stressed that such a step would require a “price”.

Enrichment at 60% can be reduced to 20%, but it must come at a price. We do not know exactly how much enriched uranium remains, because some of it is buried under rubble and has not been recovered due to the risks involved.

Ali Shamkhani, Senior Advisor of Iran’s Supreme Leader

He said Iran has no intention of transferring its enriched uranium abroad, adding that this option is now “completely off the table”.

“We Are Living in the Shadow of War”

Shamkhani described Iran’s current situation as one shaped by constant pressure and the threat of conflict, saying the country is already living under wartime conditions.

He said Iran’s enemies have imposed unjust conditions, unjust threats and an unjust war environment, while preparing for confrontation with all their strength. According to Shamkhani, Tehran is therefore ready for any possible scenario.

Europe Sidelined, US Seen as Sole Counterpart

Shamkhani said Europe has been effectively sidelined from the nuclear process since former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018.

He said European countries were unable to play any meaningful role either after the withdrawal or during negotiations held ahead of last June’s conflict. According to Shamkhani, Trump did not allow European parties to intervene in the process.

As a result, Shamkhani said the nuclear issue can only be discussed directly with the United States and strictly within the framework of nuclear negotiations, adding that reaching an agreement with Washington remains possible.

Uncertainty Over Uranium Stockpiles

Shamkhani also said Iran does not know exactly how much enriched uranium it currently holds. He said part of the stockpile is buried under rubble and has not been recovered due to the risks involved.

No steps have been taken to extract those materials so far, he added, citing safety concerns.

Middle East

Iran–US Talks to Be Held in Istanbul on February 6

Published

4 hours ago

3 February 2026

dailyreporter

Iran and the United States are set to hold high-level talks in Istanbul on February 6 as efforts intensify to revive stalled nuclear negotiations. The meeting will bring together senior officials alongside key regional actors amid rising geopolitical tensions.

According to diplomats speaking to Reuters, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will meet in Istanbul on Friday, February 6, in a renewed attempt to revive nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

A regional diplomat said the talks will include bilateral, trilateral and multilateral formats, reflecting a broader diplomatic push to prevent further escalation.

Regional Actors Join the Process

The same diplomat noted that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and several other countries will participate in the Istanbul talks, underscoring regional efforts to support diplomacy.

Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing a government official, reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian has instructed officials to initiate negotiations with the United States over Iran’s nuclear program.

Mixed Signals From Washington

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he remained optimistic about reaching an agreement but warned that “bad things could happen to Iran” if talks fail.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said a negotiation framework had already been established, rejecting media speculation about an imminent military conflict.

Contrary to the war scenarios being promoted in the media, we are making progress on the structural arrangements for negotiations.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani

An Iranian official told Reuters that diplomacy is ongoing, but stressed that Washington must reduce its military presence in the region for talks to formally begin, adding: “The ball is now in Trump’s court.”

Russia Renews Uranium Proposal

Russia has also stepped in to support de-escalation efforts. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow has reiterated its offer to take Iran’s enriched uranium, convert it into fuel for civilian nuclear reactors and store it as part of a broader confidence-building measure.

However, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that officials from the Supreme National Security Council remain opposed to sending enriched uranium abroad. Deputy Secretary Ali Bagheri Kani said the proposal would not be discussed in potential talks with Washington.

Escalating Tensions and Diplomatic Traffic

Diplomatic activity has intensified amid fears that Iran–US tensions could spill into a regional conflict. Trump sparked speculation in January by saying “help is on the way” following protests in Iran, comments that were widely interpreted as signaling possible military action.

The US later deployed the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East under CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. On January 28, Trump again urged Tehran to return to nuclear talks, warning that any future military action would be “far worse” than US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were expected to conduct naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz on February 1, but the exercise was subsequently canceled.

Türkiye Offers Facilitation Role

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned that a US attack on Iran would trigger a regional war.

Meanwhile, diplomatic engagement between Ankara and Tehran has intensified. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Araghchi on January 29, emphasizing the importance of returning to the negotiating table. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan followed up with a phone call to President Pezeshkian on January 30.

According to Türkiye’s Communications Directorate, Erdoğan told his Iranian counterpart that Ankara is ready to play a facilitating role between Iran and the United States. Erdoğan later met Araghchi in person during the Iranian minister’s visit to Türkiye.

Middle East

Rafah Crossing Will Reopen On Sunday

Published

3 days ago

31 January 2026

dailyreporter

Israel said it will reopen Gaza’s Rafah crossing on Sunday for limited civilian movement under Israeli inspection, EU supervision, and Egyptian coordination.

Israeli authorities say the crossing, closed for nearly two years, will reopen on Sunday for limited civilian transit only, tightly controlled by Israeli security procedures.

The reopening aligns with provisions outlined in the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, though no firm timetable for broader implementation has been announced.

The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), an Israeli defense ministry body, said on Friday that “exit from and entry into the Gaza Strip via the Rafah Crossing will be permitted in coordination with Egypt, following prior security clearance of individuals by Israel, and under the supervision of the European Union mission.”

COGAT added that the mechanism would mirror arrangements used in January 2025, including an additional screening and identification process at a corridor under Israeli military control.

“Limited Manner, Full Inspection”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underscored the security-first approach on Jan 28, stating, “We agreed to open the Rafah crossing in a limited manner, and only with our inspection.”

He added that it will be for people only, in limited numbers, and “everyone who exits or enters will undergo our inspection – a full inspection.”

Israeli officials say the initial phase will allow dozens of Palestinians per day in each direction, prioritizing medical evacuees and civilians displaced during the war.

An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press that movement would begin with cases approved in advance, including wounded civilians and those requiring specialized medical care unavailable in Gaza. According to Gaza’s health ministry, roughly 20,000 sick and wounded Palestinians currently require treatment outside the enclave, where hospitals and surgical capacity were severely degraded during the conflict.

Humanitarian Pressure at the Crossing

Rafah has historically been the primary gateway between Gaza and Egypt and a critical conduit for humanitarian access. Gaza is home to approximately 2 million people, many displaced multiple times and facing shortages of food, shelter, and medicine. Thousands inside Gaza are seeking to leave, while tens of thousands who fled earlier phases of fighting are seeking to return. Under the announced plan, only Palestinians who left Gaza during the war will be permitted to re-enter, and only after Israeli security clearance coordinated with Egypt.

Hamas responded by calling for full implementation of the ceasefire terms, urging Israel to open the crossing “in both directions without restrictions.” Israeli officials, however, maintain that control of Rafah remains a security imperative, particularly following the return of the remains of the last Israeli captive earlier this week, which concluded a core component of the ceasefire’s first phase.

External Oversight, Narrow Scope

The reopening will take place under the supervision of the European Union Border Assistance Mission, with Egypt coordinating on its side of the crossing. While the arrangement restores a degree of civilian movement after nearly 24 months of closure, Israeli statements make clear that Rafah will not function as an unrestricted border. The scope is limited to people, not goods, and all transit remains subject to Israeli approval.

The record on the ground appears to be far worse. An infographic by Anadolu Agency reporting shows Israel committed 1,244 ceasefire violations in Gaza after the truce took effect on October 10, 2025, resulting in 449 Palestinian deaths and 1,246 injuries. The report cites major restrictions on aid deliveries, and a shelter crisis affecting more than 1.5 million displaced people during winter conditions, claiming that Israel’s compliance only amounted to 12% of the provisions of the ceasefire deal.