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Yemen Government Moves Against UAE-Backed Separatists

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Yemen’s Saudi-backed government launched an operation on Friday to retake military sites from UAE-backed STC separatists in Hadramout. The STC reported seven Saudi airstrikes, marking a sharp escalation in tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi allies.

Yemen’s internationally recognised, Saudi-backed government has launched an operation aimed at reclaiming military positions from the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council, sharply escalating tensions in the country’s east and exposing deepening rifts within the anti-Houthi coalition. The move, announced on Friday by the Saudi-backed governor of Hadramout province, was framed as a limited and “peaceful” effort to restore order. Within minutes, however, the STC said Saudi airstrikes had begun, underscoring how quickly political declarations are translating into military confrontation on the ground.

The operation marks the latest phase in a standoff that has been building since December, when the STC expanded its military footprint across large parts of southern Yemen. While both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates intervened together in Yemen in 2015, their competing interests have increasingly diverged, with Hadramout and al-Mahra emerging as strategic fault lines bordering Saudi territory.

“Not a Declaration of War”

In a televised address, Hadramout Governor Salem Ahmed Saeed al-Khunbashi said the government had appointed him overall commander of the Homeland Shield forces in the province, granting him full military, security and administrative authority. “This is not a declaration of war,” he said, adding that the operation aimed to prevent armed camps from threatening security and to stop Hadramout from “sliding into chaos.” The government said the move was designed to reassert state authority over sensitive military sites.

The STC rejected that account. Amr Al Bidh, a senior STC official, told Reuters that the operation was never intended to be peaceful. “Saudi Arabia knowingly misled the international community by announcing a peaceful operation that they never had any intention to keep peaceful,” he said. “This was evidenced by the fact that they launched seven airstrikes minutes later.” Saudi Arabia did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the strikes.

Military Sites and Air Power

According to Bidh, three of the seven airstrikes hit the al-Khash’a military camp, one of the largest facilities in Hadramout, with capacity to house thousands of troops. Three Yemeni sources told Reuters that armored vehicles belonging to Saudi-backed government forces were moving toward the camp, which the STC seized in December. STC spokesperson Mohammed al-Naqeeb said forces across the region were on full alert and warned that the group was ready to respond “forcefully.”

The UAE backs the STC politically and militarily, while Saudi Arabia supports Yemen’s internationally recognised government. The confrontation reflects a broader struggle over who controls Yemen’s southern and eastern provinces, areas far from the main Houthi front lines but critical for borders, ports and energy infrastructure.

Aden Airport and Gulf Fallout

The military escalation has coincided with a parallel crisis over Aden International Airport, Yemen’s main gateway outside Houthi control. Flights remained halted on Friday after Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Yemen, Mohammed Al-Jaber, accused STC leader Aidarus al-Zubaidi of blocking a plane carrying a Saudi delegation from landing on Thursday. Al-Jaber said Riyadh had spent weeks trying to de-escalate but faced “continuous rejection and stubbornness.”

The STC-controlled Transport Ministry countered that Saudi Arabia had imposed an air blockade by requiring all flights to undergo additional checks via Saudi territory. The dispute follows the UAE’s announcement last week that it would withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen, after Saudi Arabia backed a demand for their departure within 24 hours. While that move briefly eased tensions, the current fighting shows disagreements among local allies persist.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both key OPEC members, now face a rare public confrontation that carries implications beyond Yemen. With OPEC+ members meeting online on Sunday and expected to maintain first-quarter output levels, the Yemen escalation highlights how geopolitical rivalry can spill into both security and economic coordination.

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Middle East

Iran Puts Uranium Enrichment on the Negotiating Table

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Iran is effectively living under war conditions and is prepared for all scenarios, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, while signalling that Tehran could reduce uranium enrichment from 60% to 20% if it receives concessions in return.

Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Iran’s nuclear programme remains entirely peaceful and rejected claims that uranium enriched to 60% is intended for military use.

Speaking to Lebanon-based Al-Mayadeen television, Shamkhani said Iran could lower its uranium enrichment level from 60% to 20%, a move long sought by Western powers, but stressed that such a step would require a “price”.

Enrichment at 60% can be reduced to 20%, but it must come at a price. We do not know exactly how much enriched uranium remains, because some of it is buried under rubble and has not been recovered due to the risks involved.

Ali Shamkhani, Senior Advisor of Iran’s Supreme Leader

He said Iran has no intention of transferring its enriched uranium abroad, adding that this option is now “completely off the table”.

“We Are Living in the Shadow of War”

Shamkhani described Iran’s current situation as one shaped by constant pressure and the threat of conflict, saying the country is already living under wartime conditions.

He said Iran’s enemies have imposed unjust conditions, unjust threats and an unjust war environment, while preparing for confrontation with all their strength. According to Shamkhani, Tehran is therefore ready for any possible scenario.

Europe Sidelined, US Seen as Sole Counterpart

Shamkhani said Europe has been effectively sidelined from the nuclear process since former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear deal in 2018.

He said European countries were unable to play any meaningful role either after the withdrawal or during negotiations held ahead of last June’s conflict. According to Shamkhani, Trump did not allow European parties to intervene in the process.

As a result, Shamkhani said the nuclear issue can only be discussed directly with the United States and strictly within the framework of nuclear negotiations, adding that reaching an agreement with Washington remains possible.

Uncertainty Over Uranium Stockpiles

Shamkhani also said Iran does not know exactly how much enriched uranium it currently holds. He said part of the stockpile is buried under rubble and has not been recovered due to the risks involved.

No steps have been taken to extract those materials so far, he added, citing safety concerns.

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Middle East

Iran–US Talks to Be Held in Istanbul on February 6

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Iran and the United States are set to hold high-level talks in Istanbul on February 6 as efforts intensify to revive stalled nuclear negotiations. The meeting will bring together senior officials alongside key regional actors amid rising geopolitical tensions.

According to diplomats speaking to Reuters, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will meet in Istanbul on Friday, February 6, in a renewed attempt to revive nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

A regional diplomat said the talks will include bilateral, trilateral and multilateral formats, reflecting a broader diplomatic push to prevent further escalation.

Regional Actors Join the Process

The same diplomat noted that Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and several other countries will participate in the Istanbul talks, underscoring regional efforts to support diplomacy.

Iran’s Fars News Agency, citing a government official, reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian has instructed officials to initiate negotiations with the United States over Iran’s nuclear program.

Mixed Signals From Washington

US President Donald Trump said on Monday that he remained optimistic about reaching an agreement but warned that “bad things could happen to Iran” if talks fail.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said a negotiation framework had already been established, rejecting media speculation about an imminent military conflict.

Contrary to the war scenarios being promoted in the media, we are making progress on the structural arrangements for negotiations.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani

An Iranian official told Reuters that diplomacy is ongoing, but stressed that Washington must reduce its military presence in the region for talks to formally begin, adding: “The ball is now in Trump’s court.”

Russia Renews Uranium Proposal

Russia has also stepped in to support de-escalation efforts. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow has reiterated its offer to take Iran’s enriched uranium, convert it into fuel for civilian nuclear reactors and store it as part of a broader confidence-building measure.

However, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim News Agency reported that officials from the Supreme National Security Council remain opposed to sending enriched uranium abroad. Deputy Secretary Ali Bagheri Kani said the proposal would not be discussed in potential talks with Washington.

Escalating Tensions and Diplomatic Traffic

Diplomatic activity has intensified amid fears that Iran–US tensions could spill into a regional conflict. Trump sparked speculation in January by saying “help is on the way” following protests in Iran, comments that were widely interpreted as signaling possible military action.

The US later deployed the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln to the Middle East under CENTCOM’s area of responsibility. On January 28, Trump again urged Tehran to return to nuclear talks, warning that any future military action would be “far worse” than US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were expected to conduct naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz on February 1, but the exercise was subsequently canceled.

Türkiye Offers Facilitation Role

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned that a US attack on Iran would trigger a regional war.

Meanwhile, diplomatic engagement between Ankara and Tehran has intensified. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met Araghchi on January 29, emphasizing the importance of returning to the negotiating table. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan followed up with a phone call to President Pezeshkian on January 30.

According to Türkiye’s Communications Directorate, Erdoğan told his Iranian counterpart that Ankara is ready to play a facilitating role between Iran and the United States. Erdoğan later met Araghchi in person during the Iranian minister’s visit to Türkiye.

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Rafah Crossing Will Reopen On Sunday

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Israel said it will reopen Gaza’s Rafah crossing on Sunday for limited civilian movement under Israeli inspection, EU supervision, and Egyptian coordination.

Israeli authorities say the crossing, closed for nearly two years, will reopen on Sunday for limited civilian transit only, tightly controlled by Israeli security procedures.

The reopening aligns with provisions outlined in the second phase of the ceasefire agreement, though no firm timetable for broader implementation has been announced.

The Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), an Israeli defense ministry body, said on Friday that “exit from and entry into the Gaza Strip via the Rafah Crossing will be permitted in coordination with Egypt, following prior security clearance of individuals by Israel, and under the supervision of the European Union mission.”

COGAT added that the mechanism would mirror arrangements used in January 2025, including an additional screening and identification process at a corridor under Israeli military control.

“Limited Manner, Full Inspection”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu underscored the security-first approach on Jan 28, stating, “We agreed to open the Rafah crossing in a limited manner, and only with our inspection.”

He added that it will be for people only, in limited numbers, and “everyone who exits or enters will undergo our inspection – a full inspection.”

Israeli officials say the initial phase will allow dozens of Palestinians per day in each direction, prioritizing medical evacuees and civilians displaced during the war.

An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press that movement would begin with cases approved in advance, including wounded civilians and those requiring specialized medical care unavailable in Gaza. According to Gaza’s health ministry, roughly 20,000 sick and wounded Palestinians currently require treatment outside the enclave, where hospitals and surgical capacity were severely degraded during the conflict.

Humanitarian Pressure at the Crossing

Rafah has historically been the primary gateway between Gaza and Egypt and a critical conduit for humanitarian access. Gaza is home to approximately 2 million people, many displaced multiple times and facing shortages of food, shelter, and medicine. Thousands inside Gaza are seeking to leave, while tens of thousands who fled earlier phases of fighting are seeking to return. Under the announced plan, only Palestinians who left Gaza during the war will be permitted to re-enter, and only after Israeli security clearance coordinated with Egypt.

Hamas responded by calling for full implementation of the ceasefire terms, urging Israel to open the crossing “in both directions without restrictions.” Israeli officials, however, maintain that control of Rafah remains a security imperative, particularly following the return of the remains of the last Israeli captive earlier this week, which concluded a core component of the ceasefire’s first phase.

External Oversight, Narrow Scope

The reopening will take place under the supervision of the European Union Border Assistance Mission, with Egypt coordinating on its side of the crossing. While the arrangement restores a degree of civilian movement after nearly 24 months of closure, Israeli statements make clear that Rafah will not function as an unrestricted border. The scope is limited to people, not goods, and all transit remains subject to Israeli approval.

The record on the ground appears to be far worse. An infographic by Anadolu Agency reporting shows Israel committed 1,244 ceasefire violations in Gaza after the truce took effect on October 10, 2025, resulting in 449 Palestinian deaths and 1,246 injuries. The report cites major restrictions on aid deliveries, and a shelter crisis affecting more than 1.5 million displaced people during winter conditions, claiming that Israel’s compliance only amounted to 12% of the provisions of the ceasefire deal.

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